by Joe Gerson

If we needed any incentives to focus more of our efforts to preventing a catastrophic great power war growing out of tensions in East Asia, this week’s reflections by Joseph Nye and Shinzo Abe (see below) – each of whom has made more than his share of contributions to the dangers we face – should more than suffice.  Take a look at the first two articles in this week’s posting.

With this year being the centenary of the outbreak of World War I, an increasing number of analysts are raising alarms about the parallels between the current situation across Asia and the Pacific and the years immediately preceding the gunshot in Sarajevo that triggered the First World War.  They include the inevitable tensions between rising and declining powers, with the dominant powers (then Britain and France, now U.S. and Japan) committed to enforcing the status quo while the rising power (then Germany, now China) presses to modify the prevailing to expand and protect its perceived interests and to exercise the influence it believes is its due. There are territorial disputes, intense arms races, interlocking alliance systems, and nations dependent on naval power being challenged by a continental power asserting itself on the high seas.  As in the early 1900s, international trade and economic globalization surging. There are new technologies increasing communication and new and cataclysmically destructive weapons. Again there is widespread belief that great power war is unimaginable. And, as in Europe in 1914, there are numerous wild cards including potentially failing states and rising nationalism.

Of course, as in 1914 war is not inevitable. Much depends on what we do.

And, meanwhile, voters in Nago voted overwhelmingly to block the construction of a new U.S. Marine air base, and the Abe and U.S. governments are hypocritically assaulting this exercise of democracy doing their best to crush Okinawan resistance. Look for a petition next week to communicate your support for peace, democracy and human dignity.

So, read, work for peace, and share these articles as you think best.

Joseph Gerson

 

Dangers of Sino-Japanse War:

 

1914 Revisited – Joseph Nye

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3636

 

Will Japan and China Go to War? – Time Magazine

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3655> (1/22)

 

United States

 

US Pacific fleet chief says North Korea is top security concern in Asia

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3661

 

China

 

 

Chinese patrol ship to be based at disputed islands in South China Sea

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3651

 

Regional security tops Sino-US talks in Beijing

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3657

 

China’s nuclear missile drill seen as warning to US not to meddle in region

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3659

 

Work under way on China’s second aircraft carrier at Dalian yard

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3624

 

China stands for 5 principles in a political settlement of the Syrian issue

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3634

 

 

Japan

 

Nago mayor wins re-election in blow to Abe, U.S.

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/nago-mayor-wins-re-election-in-blow-to-abe-u-s

 

Base setback denied after Nago poll

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3641

 

Bidding starts on Futenma base relocation work

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3647

 

Kadena (Okinawa) moms demand truth

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3645

 

Shinzo Abe seeks ‘frank discussion’ with China and South Korea

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3627

 

Abe’s Version of History Doesn’t Sit Well With Chinese

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3639

 

Ex-teacher sues over ‘Kimigayo’ rule

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3643

 

 

Foreign Minister Kishida criticized for remark on nuclear weapons while speaking in Nagasaki

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3663

 

Korea

ADIZ: a four letter word

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3631

 

S. Korean ruling party exec calls Japan ‘terrorist state’ after hero criticized<http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3649

 

South East Asia

Vietnam marks 40th anniversary of China’s invasion of Paracel Islands

http://www.asiapacificinitiative.org/?p=3629

 

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